Morning edition, Saturday 14 November

Bitcoin went on past the $71k touch from the earlier piece and fell back below $70kbenjamincowen, then to around $68k. _Checkonchain put the 200-week moving average at around $67.8k_checkonchain, and Matt Cole said it's historically one of the best timesColeMacro to add risk.

Peter Schiff came for the HODLers: Bitcoin just traded at a lower price than it traded in November 2021, and the long-term trend is downPeterSchiff. Undisclosed answered that anyone can cherry pick prior tops against bottoms, and that people who DCA long term are upBitcoinUndisc. Stephan Livera agreed, calling it how you winstephanlivera and posting a video on why DCA still works at $68kstephanlivera.

The rest was jokes and cycle talk. AutismCapital asked Did Bitcoin fuck a Chinese spy too?AutismCapital. BitPaine's chart of the past year came with what a year lmfaoBitPaine. Benjamin Cowen: Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bearsbenjamincowen. MikeWMunz called it capitulation everywhere and the time capitulation portion of a bear marketmikewmunz. British Hodl's version: nobody he knows who times it week to week has more Bitcoin than five years agoBritishHodl.

The resignation is old news; the reversal is the story. CNN reported that intelligence collected so far does not proveDavidSacks Alice Huang was a spy for Beijing. David Sacks tallied the denials: the AG says "no conclusions reached", the CIA "not yet convinced", the DNI "not entirely accurate and over-torqued". He called it Bombshell story and said the only crime that we know for sure happened is the leaking of the classified memoDavidSacks. AutismCapital, watching CNN: is CNN defending Jensen?AutismCapital

Zerohedge carried Blanche's own line that DOJ has not confirmedzerohedge whether she was a spy.

The feed's response was to aim at the board. Balaji said the allegations may be as fake as Russiagate and that employees, shareholders and customers should demand the anti-Jensen directors step down, with mass employee resignationsbalajis possible if not. Beff Jezos told e/accs to press the Nvidia board to reinstate Jensenbeffjezos. Pietro Ventani reached for the Dreyfus AffairPietroVentani. Udi Wertheimer thought politicians were pot committedudiWertheimer, so next week's hearing would be hard to watch whatever the facts.

Bloomberg had Microsoft struggling to restore accessbusiness more than nine hours in, with email and chat out. By the time BBC wrote it up, Microsoft was saying it wasn't a cyber incident and the fixes had been largely unsuccessfulBBCBreaking. Its own status feed told the story: changes not taking as expectedrationalaussie. Rational Aussie translated: Aka it's fucked.

AutismCapital offered two theories: The Cyberhacks are worse than we're even being told, or they're all just incompetentAutismCapital. He also decided that taking out Teams and Copilot was definitely white hatAutismCapital.

Zerohedge's angle was dependency: one MSFT cloud outage and the entire AI ecosystem grinds to a haltzerohedge, with a Claude status page blaming the Microsoft 365 connector. Goldman's Sean Johnstone said the desk was operating off backup emailzerohedge. Zerohedge also posted the Excel server is too busy error under Lotus 1-2-3 it is thenzerohedge.

By evening, Microsoft was seeing broad recovery and stabilityzerohedge. Zerohedge: cause everyone is using telnet.

Zerohedge's whole day on Nvidia was one idea: Jensen was the banker. Its map of the AI deals now resting on Colette Kresszerohedge had a two-chart pitch: Pick your poison: NVDA's circular financings or its off-balance sheet commitmentszerohedge. The second chart showed those commitments up tenfold in five quarters.

The mechanism, quoted: Nvidia buys a stake, the recipient commits to Nvidia hardware, and the cash comes back as GPU orderszerohedge. On the neoclouds' bad day: even a temporary pause could pull $50BN or more out of the AI ecosystem, QT for the AI trade, announced by press release at 8:48amzerohedge. The Market Ear counted a $3.5 trillion shadow of debt, leases and commitments and asked what happens if Jensen is no longer calling the shotsthemarketear.

Zerohedge posted CNBC, Bloomberg and WSJ headlines under Well that didn't take long, including the WSJ's account of Huang calling Kress a deer in the headlightszerohedge after she questioned some of his dealmaking.

The board has reportedly sounded out Arm's Rene Haas, per the FTzerohedge. Polymarket put his odds at 33% chancePolymarketMoney.

Producer prices 0.3% MoM against 0.4% expected and 6.5% YoYzerohedge against 6.6%. Core PPI came in at 5.0%, in line. The commodity breakdown put fuels and power well ahead of anything else in the contributionzerohedge.

The worry was upstream. Zerohedge: intermediate PPI more than double finalzerohedge, 14.47% against 6.52%. Heather Long, in the post Luke Gromen quoted, said businesses will pass costs on and that it's not all diesel/gasLukeGromen: PPI ex food and energy is +5.0% against CPI ex food and energy at +2.8%.

Bonds took it. The 10-year went > 5.14%, 15 bps away from multi-decade highzerohedge. Gromen put the yield chart against the date of The Economist's Will Bonds Blow Up? cover and said another is due at this paceLukeGromen.

For memory watchers: zerohedge posted a near-vertical PPI chart for semiconductor-related goods, 4 months later: this is what memory hyperinflation looks likezerohedge.

Since the filing, Bloomberg has the offering about six timesPunterJeff oversubscribed, per Jeff Walton's screenshot, with the company and co-founders raising as much as $64.4 billion. Walton's read: $90 Billion in risk capital is being called in the next 6 days, and that capital has to come from somewhere since it isn't just sitting in cash accounts. This is the largest IPO in the history of capital markets.

Later, zerohedge flagged that the IPO is said to exclude China, HK-based investorszerohedge. Its other line on the subject was a filename: ANT_IPO_bailout.exe engagezerohedge.